0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781
0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$12.1K
Total PnL
$-0.42
Realised
$848.91
Win rate
88%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
5000 shares @ 40.6¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$1.5K
$-507.13
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10500 shares @ 6.1¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$971.24
$330.22
- NO
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?
993 shares @ 82.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$947.97
$131.51
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
877 shares @ 70.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$811.07
$197.57
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1250 shares @ 23.0¢·now 37.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$471.89
$184.39
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
500 shares @ 88.7¢·now 92.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$464.50
$20.79
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5000 shares @ 5.4¢·now 9.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$452.50
$180.02
- NO
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?
500 shares @ 80.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$452.05
$51.31
- NO
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
500 shares @ 80.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$447.23
$46.78
- NO
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
300 shares @ 89.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$296.55
$27.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$1.20Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$17.00Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$2.25Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$2.25Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by July 31, 2026?$43.35Jul 28, 22:18 UTC
- SPLITWill Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$20.00Jul 28, 22:02 UTC
- SPLITWill Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$10.00Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$4.66Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$13.76Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$16.33Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$4.72Jul 28, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027?$4.75Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?$3.85Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?$144.00Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026?$28.77Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026?$2.74Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.04Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026?$12.19Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026?$13.70Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.26Jul 28, 13:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $26.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.