Melodic-Shot
0x6d828157379b72256a23acde685f97a36dd07d33
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$877.76
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
291 shares @ 80.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$291.02
$56.47
- NO
Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
418 shares @ 47.9¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$281.81
$81.81
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
210 shares @ 95.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$200.63
$0.63
- YES
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
128 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$127.41
$13.33
- NO
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
115 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$110.81
$10.81
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
128 shares @ 78.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.53
$-63.47
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
363 shares @ 82.7¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.85
$-269.15
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
300 shares @ 11.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.50
$-13.50
- YES
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
42 shares @ 26.5¢·now 45.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.90
$7.75
- YES
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
200 shares @ 65.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.00
$-120.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$205.21Aug 4, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$100.00Aug 1, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season$103.69Aug 1, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?$100.52Aug 1, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season$103.36Aug 1, 21:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$399.97Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$323.21Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs$109.89Jul 30, 17:00 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$156.25Jul 30, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?$1.55Jul 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?$4.00Jul 30, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Group Stage$102.46Jul 30, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs$100.45Jul 30, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$100.40Jul 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$100.16Jul 30, 11:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $149.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.