Substantial-Loading
0x6f8bab6a6c2330c761604ce9736122f6cc5f56ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-694.51
Realised
$46.69
Win rate
59%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Claude 4.8 released by June 30?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Russia enter Riasne by June 30, 2026?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Claude 4.8 released by June 15?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will John Kennedy vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31, 2026?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $750M?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $268 Week of May 11 2026?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-13.48
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Decibel launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.35Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?$0.15Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI?$0.89Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?$0.34Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026?$0.51Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$0.59Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?$1.29Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?$0.80Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$0.92Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30?$0.50Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLTheo FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.70Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLOver 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?$0.52Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?$0.28Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$4.20Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?$4.06Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026?$1.76Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026?$3.29Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026?$3.54Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$4.55Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?$4.51Jun 12, 09:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 23:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 09:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.