Motionless-Bog
0x74c484eab743c2a7778f71cda007826c0fcaa983
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$37.20
Total PnL
$-409.60
Realised
$0.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.50
$0.50
- NO
Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.16
$-0.84
- NO
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.55
$-2.21
- NO
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?
421 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-151.30
- YES
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22.5m?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
- YES
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 22.5m?
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.55
- YES
Will Millwall achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?
200 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-66.00
- YES
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,050,000 and $1,075,000 by February 1?
198 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,025,000 and $1,050,000 by February 1?
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 20m?
150 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.22
Recent activity
- REDEEMNicolas Jackson: 2+ shots$20.00Jun 26, 21:31 UTC
- REDEEMSenegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners$20.00Jun 26, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYSenegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners$11.35Jun 26, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNicolas Jackson: 2+ shots$13.53Jun 26, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?$118.99Jun 10, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.94Jun 5, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.00Jun 5, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.00Jun 5, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.39Jun 5, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$31.53Jun 1, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMSolstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?$34.99May 26, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?$27.00May 25, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLSolstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?$178.76May 25, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?$28.34May 25, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?$87.60May 25, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?$90.63May 25, 18:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$30.00May 24, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?$17.17May 20, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?$10.36May 20, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?$17.08May 19, 18:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $35.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 10:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 21:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.