Soggy-Characterization
0x7728d89330f0267f06cd7497c014a4f10fc7f932
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$7.67
Total PnL
$-455.65
Realised
$4.84
Win rate
87%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
45 shares @ 46.6¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.38
$-17.57
- YES
Epstein storage units raided in 2026?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.45
$0.45
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
22 shares @ 17.4¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.97
$-2.85
- YES
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?
25 shares @ 17.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.67
$-3.61
- YES
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
2 shares @ 17.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.19
$-0.22
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.01
$-0.05
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?
405 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.47
- NO
Will "Polymarket" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
150 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.50
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
102 shares @ 79.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-80.76
Recent activity
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$10.00Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$10.00May 2, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by April 30, 2026?$26.36May 1, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by April 30, 2026?$39.36May 1, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026?$6.90Apr 25, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by April 30, 2026?$4.20Apr 21, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by April 30, 2026?$19.80Apr 21, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$53.00Apr 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by April 30, 2026?$11.07Apr 17, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by April 30, 2026?$11.00Apr 17, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$8.54Apr 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$8.55Apr 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$8.56Apr 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$8.59Apr 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$6.08Apr 17, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$5.60Apr 17, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$5.21Apr 17, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$56.00Apr 17, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Allah again by April 30?$18.50Apr 17, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$37.45Apr 17, 13:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $15.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 16:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.