Poor-Sea
0x7803ddf6a3ee55dc0ca81e727eba23a627359e91
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$7.2K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-384.22
Win rate
44%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
4993 shares @ 45.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.0K
$-224.78
- NO
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
1589 shares @ 60.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$929.57
$-24.33
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
1018 shares @ 64.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$636.16
$-15.30
- YES
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
1253 shares @ 72.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$620.24
$-282.42
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
780 shares @ 84.1¢·now 72.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$561.60
$-94.10
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
1088 shares @ 45.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$418.83
$-71.14
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
437 shares @ 73.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$343.07
$23.98
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
346 shares @ 77.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$253.99
$-12.59
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
621 shares @ 35.1¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$214.18
$-3.67
- NO
Will Europe Win the WSOP Main Event
59 shares @ 86.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$50.91
$-0.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$199.85Jul 23, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$18.00Jul 23, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?$96.82Jul 23, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?$89.46Jul 23, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?$737.12Jul 23, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?$30.50Jul 23, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$866.16Jul 23, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$36.50Jul 23, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?$17.50Jul 23, 12:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$18.00Jul 23, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.97Jul 23, 12:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?$31.00Jul 23, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$34.00Jul 23, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.94Jul 23, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$18.00Jul 23, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$0.38Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$0.15Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.34Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?$0.53Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$0.54Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
36 closed markets, 44% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $76.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 13:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.