Messy-Pinstripe
0x78e3e9446099504c0771dfba10d48767b045e659
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
125
Open notional
$21.25
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$10.27
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- NO
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.62
$0.02
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.22
$0.05
- NO
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
2 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.23
$0.04
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.10
$0.10
- NO
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?
2 shares @ 95.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.61
$0.00
- NO
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1 shares @ 95.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$0.07
- YES
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?
3 shares @ 94.6¢·now 49.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.34
$-1.20
- NO
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.32
$-0.01
- NO
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
1 shares @ 97.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.28
$-0.00
- NO
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$2.01Jul 20, 14:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.60Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon acquire TikTok?$1.47Jul 1, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Walmart acquire TikTok?$1.07Jul 1, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$1.48Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$1.09Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$7.37Jun 19, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$2.00Jun 17, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$5.01Jun 17, 00:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$3.92Jun 17, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$3.68Jun 10, 09:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.10Jun 10, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMGTA VI released before June 2026?$1.68Jun 10, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$2.06Jun 10, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?$5.12Jun 10, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$2.00May 31, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?$5.00May 30, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$1.40May 30, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week?$1.49May 30, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?$1.94May 30, 10:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
1/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $4.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 08:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.