Creepy-Vegetation
0x7f96229bd42dbe4d2f6db06da771ee6ec16da226
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$202.74
Realised
$3.36
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
307 shares @ 52.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$298.95
$136.45
- NO
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
162 shares @ 69.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$155.53
$43.46
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
171 shares @ 46.5¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$100.05
$20.45
- NO
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?
145 shares @ 67.1¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$89.17
$-8.16
- YES
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?
88 shares @ 48.9¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$64.24
$21.20
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
61 shares @ 76.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$49.24
$2.55
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
58 shares @ 58.7¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$48.33
$14.16
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
47 shares @ 74.7¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$34.43
$-0.57
- NO
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
42 shares @ 69.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$33.20
$4.03
- YES
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?
51 shares @ 48.2¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$29.26
$4.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$4.14Jun 23, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$5.06Jun 23, 11:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?$0.00Jun 23, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$15.16Jun 23, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?$10.30Jun 23, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$20.24Jun 23, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$1.03Jun 23, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$20.15Jun 23, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-22?$1.49Jun 23, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$7.47Jun 23, 05:17 UTC
- MERGEBurnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?$6.67Jun 23, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBurnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?$11.85Jun 23, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?$1.02Jun 23, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Algeria win on 2026-06-22?$1.01Jun 23, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.04Jun 23, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$11.12Jun 23, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.04Jun 23, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.04Jun 23, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$6.89Jun 23, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?$13.53Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 09:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 13:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.