0x847ceca115800e52ff74ad54f76c3e7ebec4dffd
0x847ceca115800e52ff74ad54f76c3e7ebec4dffd
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$30.50
Total PnL
$-110.07
Realised
$4.59
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
7 shares @ 64.6¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.19
$0.69
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 86.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.96
$0.46
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
3 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.30
$0.30
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
6 shares @ 46.3¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.15
$0.14
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
2 shares @ 70.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.96
$0.46
- NO
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
2 shares @ 68.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.84
$0.34
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
3 shares @ 48.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.78
$0.28
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 72.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.66
$0.16
- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.62
$0.12
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.57
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.50Jul 17, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.54Jul 17, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.50Jul 17, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.48Jul 17, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.50Jul 17, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.52Jul 17, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$1.50Jul 16, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.50Jul 16, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.50Jul 16, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: 2026$5.61Jul 16, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.50Jul 10, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?$1.63Jul 10, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.50Jul 8, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.65Jul 8, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?$1.52Jul 3, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.50Jul 2, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.50Jul 2, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMKurds declare independence from Iran?$1.55Jul 2, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$4.02Jul 1, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.81Jul 1, 06:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 14:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 12:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.