Essential-Eveningwear
0x861e05199e800ff6cbc6261c0558db16353e36f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$197.36
Total PnL
$-12.94
Realised
$1.24
Win rate
100%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
10 shares @ 71.3¢·now 72.7¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$7.26
$0.13
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on August 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 73.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.05
$-0.30
- NO
Will Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?
5 shares @ 95.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$4.73
$-0.06
- NO
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$4.70
$-0.10
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 90.6¢·now 90.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.53
$0.00
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.35
$-0.05
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 86.1¢·now 86.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.30
$-0.00
- NO
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.13
$-0.47
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.03
$0.03
- NO
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.95
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?$0.29Aug 2, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?$1.15Aug 2, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$0.65Aug 2, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$1.20Aug 2, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$0.50Aug 2, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother season 28?$0.35Aug 2, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?$2.10Aug 2, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.85Aug 2, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?$0.30Aug 2, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$1.40Aug 2, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Garfield as Spider-Man?$0.65Aug 2, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$1.86Aug 2, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?$2.60Aug 2, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?$0.03Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China Military clash before 2027?$0.21Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS military draft authorized in 2026?$0.22Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$0.24Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?$0.24Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$0.33Aug 2, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?$0.17Aug 2, 17:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 16:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 18:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.