Unruly-Lake
0x8b02f8893114c9c7c079ed90e003c1d89f9aa23b
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$771.28
Total PnL
$-340.96
Realised
$-93.02
Win rate
14%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?
846 shares @ 26.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$719.10
$499.14
- NO
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
38 shares @ 72.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$38.00
$10.56
- NO
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.91
$2.11
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.44
$0.49
- NO
Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?
4 shares @ 49.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.34
$0.38
- NO
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?
3 shares @ 40.3¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.34
$1.13
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
2 shares @ 68.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.18
$-0.19
- NO
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.24
- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1 shares @ 62.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.93
$0.31
- YES
Stripe IPO before 2027?
1 shares @ 43.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?$0.81May 21, 10:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$1.00May 21, 10:42 UTC
- REDEEMTrove FDV above $100M one day after launch?$3.00May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?$3.00May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$3.36May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMTrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026?$5.18May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$21.91May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$24.00May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$124.02May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 10 be between 1,900,000 and 2,000,000?$207.00May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?$266.00May 21, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$415.00May 21, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$11.56Apr 21, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$4.40Apr 21, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$4.40Apr 21, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?$0.10Feb 8, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$4.35Feb 8, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?$49.80Feb 8, 19:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$9.75Feb 8, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$31.79Feb 8, 17:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $87.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 16:06 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 10:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.