Meager-Essay
0x8de5f64b6466d9ebec97909f78a11762a46f9416
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$432.87
Realised
$-290.17
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
970 shares @ 63.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$882.37
$271.56
- YES
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07?
1312 shares @ 34.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$531.36
$85.28
- NO
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
546 shares @ 18.8¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$453.18
$350.53
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
40 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.00
$15.60
- NO
Will Chainlink reach $20 by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 84.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.42
$0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?$2.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMUNCW Seahawks vs. Charleston Cougars$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 22, 8PM ET$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?$186.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMNCAA Tournament: Double-digit seed to make Quarterfinals?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5)$0.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)$334.00Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMMichigan State Spartans vs. Temple Owls$262.50Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $289.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 07:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.