Ethical-Bough
0x8e16fae7f65f64b6e586e751ee53c45e76999d36
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$43.20
Total PnL
$-8.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$11.90
$1.90
- YES
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?
11 shares @ 91.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$10.98
$0.98
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.20
$1.20
- NO
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.18
$0.18
- NO
French election called by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.13
$0.13
- NO
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.12
$0.12
- NO
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.07
$0.07
- YES
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.62
$-0.38
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
11 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$8.00May 27, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?$10.06May 26, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$10.04May 26, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMUK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?$3.16May 26, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump Insult Xi this week?$0.37May 13, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?$3.01May 13, 19:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$17.08May 13, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$15.07Apr 28, 17:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?$2.06Apr 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 11?$3.00Apr 11, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$5.00Apr 8, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill France strike Iran by March 31?$1.04Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$2.03Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMJosé Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?$2.04Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$2.07Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$2.08Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMMinneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?$2.09Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.16Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the March meeting?$3.06Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?$3.16Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $3.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 15:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 27, 23:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.