Ethical-Bough
0x8e16fae7f65f64b6e586e751ee53c45e76999d36
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$17.53
Total PnL
$-10.83
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
6 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.75
$0.75
- NO
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.27
$0.27
- NO
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- NO
French election called by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- NO
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
2 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
11 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?
10 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
- YES
Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?
3 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$5.00Jun 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.00Jun 23, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMo1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?$2.10Jun 23, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$9.20Jun 23, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$10.98Jun 23, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?$11.90Jun 23, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$8.00May 27, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?$10.06May 26, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$10.04May 26, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMUK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?$3.16May 26, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump Insult Xi this week?$0.37May 13, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?$3.01May 13, 19:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$17.08May 13, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$15.07Apr 28, 17:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$1.08Apr 28, 17:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?$2.06Apr 28, 17:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 11?$3.03Apr 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 11?$3.00Apr 11, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$5.00Apr 8, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill France strike Iran by March 31?$1.04Apr 1, 17:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $4.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 18:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 17:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.