Webbed-Kitten
0x9182ab8157689aa8fdb58aeca518e3fbed0b3368
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$313.41
Win rate
13%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1339 shares @ 36.2¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$394.94
$-89.37
- YES
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1162 shares @ 35.2¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$284.60
$-123.88
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
344 shares @ 52.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$249.36
$69.36
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
624 shares @ 38.2¢·now 35.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$221.16
$-17.07
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
404 shares @ 26.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.09
$-1.91
- YES
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?
302 shares @ 31.1¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$93.77
$-0.23
- YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
260 shares @ 33.2¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.98
$-12.14
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
129 shares @ 45.8¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$66.24
$7.37
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1138 shares @ 4.7¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$59.72
$6.23
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
93 shares @ 45.4¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$45.34
$3.34
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$5.17Aug 18, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$5.19Aug 18, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$10.34Aug 18, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?$10.26Aug 18, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?$5.14Aug 18, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?$5.14Aug 18, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?$5.14Aug 18, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?$10.26Aug 18, 02:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$0.51Aug 12, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?$10.28Aug 12, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$33.18Aug 12, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$45.98Aug 12, 05:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
40 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $13.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 07:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.