0x91ad7ea1fed3e143b456ccfd59e1e6a9dbd4b29e
0x91ad7ea1fed3e143b456ccfd59e1e6a9dbd4b29e
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$76.13
Total PnL
$-5.26
Realised
$-1.43
Win rate
23%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.65
$0.20
- NO
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.28
$0.03
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
6 shares @ 86.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.22
$0.05
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.12
$0.28
- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 95.8¢·now 94.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.44
$-0.04
- NO
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
3 shares @ 92.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.07
$-0.07
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 88.5¢·now 91.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.71
$0.08
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.36
$-0.01
- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
3 shares @ 95.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.34
$-0.06
- NO
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.21
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$3.87Jul 29, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?$1.02Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$0.07Jul 29, 00:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GameStop acquire eBay?$0.21Jul 29, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?$0.99Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GameStop acquire eBay?$0.02Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GameStop acquire eBay?$0.06Jul 28, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.01Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$0.03Jul 28, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.03Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?$0.07Jul 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.23Jul 28, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 24, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 24, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 24, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?$0.22Jul 24, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.03Jul 24, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold have the best performance in 2026?$1.02Jul 24, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.22Jul 24, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 21:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.