0x91c7f544a6efad9825185c2bca1f1a95cc92b576
0x91c7f544a6efad9825185c2bca1f1a95cc92b576
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$14.8K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-320.01
Win rate
75%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
4387 shares @ 81.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.9K
$346.83
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2966 shares @ 85.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$-1.0K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
996 shares @ 86.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$911.35
$46.70
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 86.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$905.00
$38.10
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
989 shares @ 67.3¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$662.92
$-3.19
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
497 shares @ 78.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$444.43
$55.21
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
430 shares @ 91.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$410.65
$18.75
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
450 shares @ 80.9¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$402.75
$38.75
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
501 shares @ 68.7¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$373.25
$29.21
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
546 shares @ 66.6¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$362.87
$-0.74
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.24Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?$95.90Jul 22, 15:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$236.99Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?$80.30Jul 21, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$236.75Jul 21, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.00Jul 21, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 21, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 21, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$91.00Jul 21, 02:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$60.52Jul 20, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$5.14Jul 20, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$1.39Jul 20, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$11.23Jul 20, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$126.00Jul 20, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$7.50Jul 20, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$74.40Jul 20, 13:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $63.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 18:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.