All-Router-Trail
0x92c7f6219053e1ad67779f7f4fe30cb0007b89f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$807.54
Total PnL
$-52.61
Realised
$-47.27
Win rate
28%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
277 shares @ 80.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$230.99
$7.72
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
42 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.86
$-0.21
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
41 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$35.21
$-0.61
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.78
$-0.14
- NO
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?
21 shares @ 91.2¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$20.60
$1.53
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
21 shares @ 96.2¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.88
$-0.01
- YES
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
20 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.70
$0.28
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
20 shares @ 95.8¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.32
$-0.12
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
20 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.09
$-0.10
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
25 shares @ 24.9¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.45
$12.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 13 hours?$2.16Aug 21, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 10 hours?$1.29Aug 21, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 14 hours?$2.12Aug 21, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 14 hours?$1.24Aug 21, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 11 hours?$1.33Aug 21, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?$1.75Aug 21, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$0.90Aug 21, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 21, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$8.18Aug 20, 23:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$16.59Aug 20, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1.81Aug 20, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$0.01Aug 20, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$0.04Aug 20, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$0.09Aug 20, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 6 hours?$0.62Aug 20, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 6 hours?$3.08Aug 20, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.37Aug 20, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.83Aug 20, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$6.81Aug 20, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$0.67Aug 20, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 07:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 03:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.