Practical-Bassinet
0x97402fd16c1e4a3a85faf9fc166cc5cd0456564e
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
164
Open notional
$8.21
Total PnL
$-32.9K
Realised
$-2.6K
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 164- NO
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 98.2¢·now 97.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.64
$-0.01
- NO
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
1 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.44
$0.01
- NO
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$0.02
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
1 shares @ 94.1¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.04
$-0.00
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 96.6¢·now 94.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.98
$-0.02
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
10264 shares @ 64.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-6.6K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
5102 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-2.8K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
2703 shares @ 53.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.4K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$1.02Jul 20, 14:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$1.00Jul 20, 14:44 UTC
- REDEEMJerome Powell federally charged by June 30?$1.30Jul 1, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.36Jun 30, 23:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$3.11Jun 24, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$2.34Jun 19, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$7.94Jun 19, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$4.18Jun 18, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$1.06Jun 17, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?$3.81Jun 16, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$1.38Jun 14, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$1.30Jun 13, 10:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.56Jun 13, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?$1.00Jun 13, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?$2.81Jun 6, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$7.23Jun 6, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$5.62Jun 1, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?$2.23Jun 1, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?$5.02May 30, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.59May 30, 03:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $2.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 14:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.