Costly-Manufacturer
0x9a9392083c50d8a9c1fce141a15e600f35f206f3
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$839.93
Total PnL
$-113.60
Realised
$-0.90
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
583 shares @ 85.7¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$449.24
$-50.76
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
363 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$328.19
$-1.81
- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
241 shares @ 12.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$20.49
$-8.51
- YES
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 33.7¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$15.03
$-18.74
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
8 shares @ 0.3¢·now 88.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.10
$7.08
- YES
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 69.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.54
$-0.30
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.00
$0.86
- YES
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.04
$0.82
- YES
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.30
$-0.10
- YES
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
7260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-7.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$330.00Jun 10, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.01Jun 10, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.02Jun 10, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.18Jun 10, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.07Jun 10, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$502.86Jun 9, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$5.81Jun 9, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?$2.49Jun 9, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?$6.84Jun 8, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.09Jun 7, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$17.85Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?$20.00Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Syria security agreement by March 31?$20.00Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?$22.04Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$529.58Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?$100.90Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24?$100.80Jun 7, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$4.40Feb 25, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$10.25Feb 25, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?$4.25Feb 25, 20:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $39.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 17:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 13:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.