Bustling-Precedent
0x9c2e334aea150023936f57bc0b7aaf2b88c6e025
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$296.06
Total PnL
$-344.84
Realised
$-46.91
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
764 shares @ 32.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$179.54
$-64.94
- YES
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
175 shares @ 80.6¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$81.29
$-59.76
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
19 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$19.00
$4.18
- OPENAI
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
694 shares @ 27.2¢·now 2.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$15.27
$-173.50
- NO
Will Strava’s market cap be between $10B and $15B at market close on IPO day?
1 shares @ 97.7¢·now 94.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.94
$-0.04
- YES
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
51 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.33
- YES
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
6 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.13
- YES
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.19Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on March 30, 2026 (ET)?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernard Arnault be 3rd richest person on March 31?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMPortsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Both Teams to Score$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMRobinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nepali Congress win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMTexas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMGardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5)$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMAberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5$0.00Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $205.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 19:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 16:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.