Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
Probability
69¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+34.5pp
24h Vol
$104.27
Liquidity
$197.47
Probability (last 7 days)
+18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 35pp over 24h
Now 69¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 35.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+37.5pp over the last 24h, now 69¢.
Biggest hourly move: +25.5pp at 12:00 (to 70¢).
Show all 29 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +16.5pp → 68¢
- 17:00 · +11.5pp → 63¢
- 15:00 · +23.5pp → 75¢
- 14:00 · +23.5pp → 74¢
- 12:00 · +25.5pp → 70¢
- 11:00 · +21.0pp → 70¢
- 09:00 · +12.5pp → 64¢
- 08:00 · +23.5pp → 63¢
- 06:00 · +10.5pp → 61¢
- 05:00 · +9.5pp → 61¢
- 03:00 · +5.0pp → 56¢
- 02:00 · -14.0pp → 37¢
- 00:00 · -18.5pp → 33¢
- 23:00 · -18.5pp → 33¢
- 21:00 · -13.0pp → 38¢
- 20:00 · -20.0pp → 31¢
- 1d ago · -18.0pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -16.5pp → 34¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · -12.0pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · -7.0pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
7- 22¢-27.0pp
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 100¢+22.4pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 19¢-38.0pp
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Other · Vol $755.9K
- 100¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $552.6K
- 48¢+3.5pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $513.3K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $476.3K
Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- CoinGeckoExchange priceextracted · highcoingecko.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (35.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.