Intelligent-Placebo
0x9df6b28c3382b5f4c29cfaeb45a66b21c34c608a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$8.32
Total PnL
$-39.62
Realised
$-3.00
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.83
$1.83
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.63
$0.63
- YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
4 shares @ 27.9¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$0.20
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.69
$-0.31
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 4.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.16
$-0.84
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
144 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
47 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 8, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 8, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.02Jul 6, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Jul 5, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?$1.14Jun 17, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.19Jun 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$1.47May 20, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$2.07May 20, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$2.30May 20, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$2.38May 20, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?$1.08Apr 19, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21?$0.00Apr 10, 11:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21?$0.00Apr 10, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?$1.00Apr 10, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?$0.86Apr 10, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$1.00Apr 10, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?$1.00Apr 10, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$2.00Apr 10, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?$1.00Apr 10, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$2.00Apr 10, 10:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 14:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 14:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.