Upright-Appellation
0x9dfb2df4d4e8433b6e8fd592d4a9a9366fcae887
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$9.2K
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-635.41
Win rate
52%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
1980 shares @ 95.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$68.97
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1418 shares @ 90.2¢·now 75.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.1K
$-206.32
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
722 shares @ 96.3¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$711.89
$16.33
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
764 shares @ 86.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$691.42
$27.49
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
401 shares @ 95.8¢·now 97.2¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$389.82
$5.42
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
500 shares @ 74.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$382.50
$12.50
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
600 shares @ 61.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$381.00
$15.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 92.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$374.00
$4.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$366.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
400 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$362.00
$2.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$99.36Jul 28, 13:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$99.06Jul 28, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$23.95Jul 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$23.75Jul 28, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$198.00Jul 28, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$158.72Jul 28, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$39.72Jul 28, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$56.76Jul 28, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 27?$56.89Jul 28, 07:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$198.00Jul 27, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$198.00Jul 27, 05:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?$24.27Jul 26, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?$45.50Jul 26, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$36.84Jul 26, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$94.90Jul 26, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$64.92Jul 26, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$197.80Jul 26, 18:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $111.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.