Elaborate-Starboard
0x9f6a5fe74f6fe2b8276b64bc8bec0712ad6953e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$728.88
Total PnL
$-187.80
Realised
$-36.84
Win rate
41%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Databricks IPO before 2027?
501 shares @ 34.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$453.40
$283.06
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
460 shares @ 53.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$264.50
$20.70
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?
6 shares @ 71.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.58
$1.32
- NO
Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 79.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.43
$-0.15
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.11
$0.09
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.00
$0.85
- NO
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.70
$-0.10
- YES
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 74.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.62
$-2.34
- YES
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?
25 shares @ 20.1¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.46
$-4.57
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 23.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?$0.89May 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?$1.00May 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?$1.00May 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ime Udoka win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?$1.00May 8, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jon M. Chu be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$1.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?$1.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$2.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$2.99May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$15.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$101.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$162.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$227.00May 8, 08:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Apr 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 30, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 29, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 28, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 26, 00:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 08:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.