Offensive-Farm
0xa1304f4ccf55c14ca98ad9163031686d0e5e1f7b
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$115.32
Total PnL
$-708.85
Realised
$-1.78
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
10 shares @ 31.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.97
$6.87
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
10 shares @ 59.2¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.71
$3.80
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
8 shares @ 76.7¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.42
$0.49
- NO
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
9 shares @ 47.5¢·now 68.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.36
$1.92
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 69.4¢·now 73.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.34
$0.35
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
9 shares @ 70.4¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.25
$0.26
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 77.7¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.14
$0.21
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
8 shares @ 75.3¢·now 77.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$6.13
$0.16
- YES
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
15 shares @ 37.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$6.04
$0.30
- YES
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
13 shares @ 42.6¢·now 42.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.50
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Starmer officially leave office by July 17?$0.30Jun 26, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer officially leave office by July 17?$0.14Jun 26, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.35Jun 25, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.20Jun 25, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.75Jun 25, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.40Jun 25, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$1.25Jun 25, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.15Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.55Jun 24, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?$4.97Jun 24, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$1.03Jun 24, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?$1.10Jun 24, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.03Jun 23, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 23, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 23, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?$1.25Jun 23, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?$0.16Jun 23, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?$2.25Jun 23, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$1.14Jun 23, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer officially leave office by July 17?$2.65Jun 23, 14:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 04:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 19:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.