First-Combination
0xa1b98f39fcb669646c1d8d4b244f6b5e252d8179
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$153.28
Realised
$520.76
Win rate
64%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- NO
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?
359 shares @ 76.9¢·now 87.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$315.17
$39.02
- NO
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
290 shares @ 84.7¢·now 82.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$238.88
$-6.97
- NO
Will fewer than 10 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?
214 shares @ 82.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$214.47
$36.96
- NO
Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?
228 shares @ 75.5¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$207.39
$35.47
- NO
Will Marty Tuley win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?
192 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$191.45
$11.40
- NO
Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
164 shares @ 80.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$164.31
$32.12
- NO
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
162 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$157.02
$1.06
- NO
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
198 shares @ 62.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$155.50
$32.28
- NO
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
164 shares @ 83.1¢·now 88.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.80
$9.55
- NO
Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?
152 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.81
$5.40
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Apr 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 31, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 30, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 28, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 26, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 25, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 24, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 23, 01:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 22, 00:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 21, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 20, 01:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 19, 00:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 18, 01:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 17, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 16, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 15, 00:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 14, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 13, 00:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
44 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 12:10 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.