Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $918 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.