Weekly-Octagon
0xa208aa8da41aa2a5c8934b5788df9f3369a4f048
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
123
Open notional
$169.45
Total PnL
$-558.99
Realised
$7.41
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 66.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$27.88
$7.88
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
28 shares @ 72.0¢·now 84.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$23.56
$3.56
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
18 shares @ 57.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.39
$7.39
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
24 shares @ 41.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.07
$2.07
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.27
$1.27
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$10.10
$-0.10
- YES
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
87 shares @ 6.5¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.82
$2.17
- YES
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
20 shares @ 12.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$4.90
$2.50
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
50 shares @ 19.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.75
$-4.75
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
10 shares @ 49.4¢·now 47.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.70
$-0.24
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$10.00Jun 8, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$5.00Jun 2, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$23.16Jun 2, 19:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$4.00May 30, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$2.60May 30, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$5.00May 30, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS military draft authorized in 2026?$1.60May 30, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$3.00May 29, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.18May 29, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.17May 29, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$13.82May 29, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$26.07May 29, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$26.11May 29, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?$1.52May 29, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.94May 29, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$5.27May 29, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$1.12May 29, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $9.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 14:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 8, 00:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.