Lasting-Permafrost
0xa2d2d4d24a4ca90b7f8df6160cd8baf0c80e36b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-227.12
Realised
$-17.42
Win rate
12%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- YES
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
159 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
133 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
91 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-8.80
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
66 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
59 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.65
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?
54 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic$2.53Aug 3, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$0.04Jul 2, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.11Jul 2, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?$0.48Jul 2, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$0.23Jul 2, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$0.60Jul 2, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$0.34Jul 2, 07:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.25Jul 2, 07:13 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$0.86Jul 2, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.55Jul 2, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$3.47Jul 2, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$0.55Jul 2, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?$3.97Jul 2, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$2.99Jul 2, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$0.97Jul 2, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.12Jul 2, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?$0.45Jul 2, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?$4.07Jul 2, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$4.42Jul 2, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$4.95Jul 2, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
58 closed markets, 12% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 04:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.