Candid-Collateral-Octagon
0xa2fefa2b0f646d1136e5a8aa7b2de96544362e87
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$905.57
Total PnL
$-429.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
153 shares @ 65.1¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$127.95
$28.22
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
149 shares @ 67.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$126.12
$26.12
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
141 shares @ 71.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$121.83
$21.83
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
192 shares @ 52.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$110.58
$10.58
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
198 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$97.78
$-0.99
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
191 shares @ 51.2¢·now 50.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$96.12
$-1.41
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
142 shares @ 62.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$80.18
$-7.82
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
86 shares @ 58.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$64.22
$14.22
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
98 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.52
$0.49
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
638 shares @ 7.8¢·now 4.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.27
$-18.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$77.41Jun 1, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by May 31?$81.73Jun 1, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?$81.35May 24, 15:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$80.83May 24, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$99.00May 17, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$89.58May 17, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$100.00May 17, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$10.06May 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$47.98May 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$50.00May 17, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$99.91May 17, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$101.24May 17, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before GTA VI?$50.26May 17, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by May 31?$50.97May 17, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? $50.00May 17, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$100.00May 17, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$99.73May 17, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100.00May 17, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?$50.00May 17, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$88.00May 17, 15:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $76.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 15:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 17:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.