Mundane-Airbag
0xa3af760e15e6b6bd3c43d8cf2ae6952f0a9bb7a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.6K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-115.62
Win rate
66%
127 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1882 shares @ 78.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.9K
$404.89
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1045 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.0K
$5.48
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
724 shares @ 79.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$553.96
$-22.02
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
473 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$464.25
$-0.49
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
463 shares @ 93.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$461.12
$27.71
- NO
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
436 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$434.04
$0.05
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
372 shares @ 89.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$336.97
$4.84
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
341 shares @ 86.4¢·now 87.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$298.14
$3.35
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
356 shares @ 80.5¢·now 80.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$286.90
$0.33
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
286 shares @ 91.4¢·now 95.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$273.38
$12.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$7.91Jul 29, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$10.54Jul 29, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.94Jul 29, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.23Jul 29, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$7.89Jul 29, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$6.75Jul 29, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$9.00Jul 29, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$9.66Jul 29, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$4.67Jul 29, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.39Jul 29, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$4.95Jul 29, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$6.40Jul 29, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: DIA Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins$3.19Jul 29, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$15.40Jul 29, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: DIA Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins$15.00Jul 29, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$45.68Jul 29, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$14.93Jul 29, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$5.77Jul 29, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$6.03Jul 29, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$5.27Jul 29, 18:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 127 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
127 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $21.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 17:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 127 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.