Illiterate-Dial
0xa400b2a975c6e7ebee8fab551a22aa99222cec34
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$264.60
Total PnL
$-191.51
Realised
$-91.68
Win rate
29%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
172 shares @ 68.0¢·now 94.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$161.94
$44.98
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
133 shares @ 22.0¢·now 53.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$71.69
$42.43
- NO
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
25 shares @ 57.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.38
$5.13
- NO
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.89
$1.99
- NO
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.71
$0.85
- NO
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.00
$0.44
- NO
Will the Boston Celtics make the NBA Playoffs?
220 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.80
- NO
Will Seth Rogen (The Studio) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?
184 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-16.59
- NO
Will Lighter dip to $1.5 before 2027?
114 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-35.31
- YES
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 3?
78 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-12.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?$0.36May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$1.92May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$5.88May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$6.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMTrove FDV above $60M one day after launch?$6.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$12.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?$15.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMTrove FDV above $80M one day after launch?$16.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mills flip Platner for Maine Dem Senate Primary Winner by January 31?$25.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$30.99May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gemini win the okbet trading competition?$39.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$73.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMGoogle Gemini Parlay$121.53May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$138.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?$169.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$373.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iran next?$373.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$493.00May 25, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$10.08Feb 8, 20:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $29.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 23:16 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 02:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.