Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
Probability
40¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+6.0pp
24h Vol
$24.86
Liquidity
$11.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 40¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 35¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:38PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 40¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 35¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 38¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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