Pale-Chronograph
0xa408ecf7297bb8277f4ad1de57e2d67a86ee3dc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$399.09
Total PnL
$-864.58
Realised
$44.54
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
67 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$59.00
$-1.01
- NO
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
68 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$49.66
$-0.34
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
51 shares @ 97.5¢·now 95.6¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$49.03
$-0.97
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
83 shares @ 60.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$47.07
$-2.92
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
55 shares @ 73.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.22
$-11.78
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
1154 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$27.69
$-2.31
- YES
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
96 shares @ 52.3¢·now 26.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$25.32
$-24.68
- YES
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
151 shares @ 19.9¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.91
$-8.09
- YES
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
5313 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$18.59
$-54.78
- YES
Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?
313 shares @ 6.4¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2026$12.53
$-7.47
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?$20.75Jul 14, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$42.17Jul 14, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$60.26Jul 13, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$31.17Jul 11, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$50.52Jul 11, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$54.46Jul 11, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYMasoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?$30.96Jul 6, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$40.13Jul 6, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$30.74Jul 6, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$40.00Jul 5, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$52.21Jul 5, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$50.14Jun 24, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$50.00Jun 24, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$50.59Jun 20, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$60.28Jun 20, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$58.38Jun 19, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$20.13Jun 18, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$38.32Jun 18, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$56.26Jun 18, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$65.00Jun 18, 07:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $44.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 06:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 13:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.