Posh-Hamburger
0xa44b5d28336bc8802ab308961f0938d18de1eb27
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-188.21
Realised
$-63.99
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
576 shares @ 67.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$521.28
$135.36
- NO
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
567 shares @ 80.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$501.80
$48.20
- YES
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
735 shares @ 82.2¢·now 46.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$342.14
$-262.03
- NO
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
101 shares @ 87.4¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.59
$11.31
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
48 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$45.91
$0.79
- YES
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?
89 shares @ 63.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.34
$-46.73
- YES
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
30 shares @ 53.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.20
$-8.70
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
13 shares @ 34.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.40
$-2.02
- NO
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
2 shares @ 75.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.84
$0.34
- NO
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?
1 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.85
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?$0.19Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.57Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMmert mindshare all time high by March 31?$1.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMHarmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMProph3T mindshare all time high by March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMArthur_0x mindshare all time high by March 31?$2.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?$3.53Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMUSD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?$5.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-21?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trey Trainor be the Republican nominee for TX-21?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 104.5 billion views by December 31? $0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?$0.00Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.