Thorny-Oversight
0xa62abc8cb1fb4dc98ff0bd11b1cd89854e3aa8ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$25.9K
Total PnL
$556.17
Realised
$-95.74
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
10870 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$10.1K
$54.35
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
9400 shares @ 90.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.7K
$191.04
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
1267 shares @ 74.8¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$129.28
- NO
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?
964 shares @ 93.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$963.25
$61.91
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
735 shares @ 67.8¢·now 79.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$582.97
$84.32
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
589 shares @ 85.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$533.04
$31.23
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
595 shares @ 89.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$532.52
$2.23
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
609 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$526.78
$9.44
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
580 shares @ 86.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$519.10
$17.20
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
413 shares @ 72.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$390.28
$91.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$39.25Jun 13, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$7.47Jun 13, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$1.37Jun 13, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$2.06Jun 13, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$43.93Jun 13, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$36.06Jun 13, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$20.36Jun 13, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$26.73Jun 13, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$19.00Jun 13, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$85.24Jun 13, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$16.68Jun 13, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$103.74Jun 13, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$100.10Jun 13, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$4.70Jun 13, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?$4.99Jun 13, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?$100.00Jun 13, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$5.20Jun 13, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$12.00Jun 13, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$77.30Jun 13, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$25.83Jun 13, 08:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $86.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 13:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 19:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.