Traumatic-Fiberglass
0xa7edce3f029efe8d10efeaf51ec577b656dc18f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$3.8K
Realised
$4.2K
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3154 shares @ 45.2¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.0K
$577.31
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
4838 shares @ 23.8¢·now 23.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.2K
$4.58
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$179.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
499 shares @ 60.1¢·now 26.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$129.76
$-170.24
- YES
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
689 shares @ 2.8¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$38.21
$18.94
- YES
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
691 shares @ 17.4¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.69
$-100.46
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
499 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.24
$-36.76
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1383 shares @ 33.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-469.19
- YES
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
217 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-50.00
- ENGLAND
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
200 shares @ 55.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-110.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$36.52Jul 23, 12:29 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.09Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$107.93Jul 21, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$61.52Jul 21, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$44.14Jul 21, 21:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.62Jul 15, 00:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.74Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$286.44Jul 14, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.42Jul 14, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$11.85Jul 14, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$13.27Jul 14, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.11Jul 14, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$21.09Jul 14, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$11.85Jul 14, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.06Jul 14, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$119.91Jul 14, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$112.97Jul 14, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$103.05Jul 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$157.02Jul 14, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $63.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 02:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 12:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.