Key-Finding
0xa9f2d6b4a8b0b322ddb2f837c2852c1b47056c8e
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$18.0K
Total PnL
$145.16
Realised
$-419.55
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5903 shares @ 74.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.9K
$459.19
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5073 shares @ 86.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$55.55
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1852 shares @ 81.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.7K
$157.41
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
1209 shares @ 82.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$9.78
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
872 shares @ 90.9¢·now 94.2¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$821.44
$28.52
- YES
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
665 shares @ 90.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$615.53
$15.54
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
753 shares @ 67.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$553.51
$47.85
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
755 shares @ 59.6¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$456.56
$6.57
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
441 shares @ 68.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$377.24
$77.26
- NO
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
390 shares @ 77.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$317.49
$17.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMWimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini$144.92Jul 4, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$0.06Jul 4, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$170.10Jul 4, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?$1.04Jul 4, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?$1.63Jul 4, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$1.42Jul 4, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$8.70Jul 4, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$0.82Jul 4, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$2.71Jul 4, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 4?$4.37Jul 4, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$24.49Jul 4, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$48.81Jul 4, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini$50.46Jul 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini$50.46Jul 4, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$0.06Jul 4, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$100.00Jul 4, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$100.00Jul 4, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?$0.83Jul 4, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$22.62Jul 4, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?$0.37Jul 4, 18:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
$8.9K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $44.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 17:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 21:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.