Smoggy-Antique
0xaab9f5e600a5dd88fe3a6f93313b180f6220a08d
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$38.6K
Total PnL
$-7.0K
Realised
$463.31
Win rate
62%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
21685 shares @ 35.6¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.3K
$-456.15
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
16034 shares @ 60.7¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.1K
$-4.7K
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
10309 shares @ 40.6¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.5K
$-728.41
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
3513 shares @ 61.9¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$883.58
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
10358 shares @ 27.6¢·now 26.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.7K
$-162.22
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
11923 shares @ 33.2¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$-1.4K
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
3491 shares @ 59.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$2.4K
$341.06
- NO
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31?
1522 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.5K
$23.73
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
110071 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.5K
$-530.32
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2073 shares @ 88.0¢·now 62.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$-534.73
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 29, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.27Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$2.08Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$6.11Jul 27, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$44.57Jul 27, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$0.68Jul 27, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$12.65Jul 27, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$0.35Jul 27, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.53Jul 27, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$16.93Jul 27, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$67.02Jul 27, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$12.55Jul 27, 00:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$11.31Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?$3.33Jul 27, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$2.49Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$70.35Jul 26, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$0.37Jul 26, 22:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $52.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 23:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.