Austere-Tussle
0xada3696694e72779ea278a87318f298e1ef1c449
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$413.74
Total PnL
$-886.55
Realised
$20.84
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
137 shares @ 72.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$137.36
$37.36
- YES
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?
124 shares @ 81.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.30
$1.30
- KATIE VOLYNETS
The Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$50.00
$40.00
- KEI NISHIKORI
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang
41 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$40.82
$20.82
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
132 shares @ 38.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$26.97
$-23.03
- YES
Colorado bill to decriminalize sex work becomes law in 2026?
37 shares @ 54.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.59
$-4.41
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
25 shares @ 40.2¢·now 57.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$14.40
$4.40
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
47 shares @ 21.3¢·now 21.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.16
$0.16
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
91 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.64
$-1.36
- YES
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 30.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.50
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang$20.51Jul 27, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$10.40Jul 27, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$101.36Jul 27, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$51.24Jul 27, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang AND The Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$10.00Jul 27, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang AND The Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic$10.00Jul 27, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$103.08Jul 27, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$112.25Jul 27, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$101.16Jul 27, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$111.27Jul 27, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$102.62Jul 27, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$206.90Jul 27, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$153.24Jul 27, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$134.17Jul 27, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$103.26Jul 27, 20:40 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBloomfield Hills: Mark Lajal vs Darwin Blanch AND Winnipeg: Justin Boulais vs Johannus Monday$100.00Jul 21, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$135.58Jul 21, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$103.57Jul 21, 22:05 UTC
- TRADESELLPFK Levski Sofia vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 2.5 AND PFK Levski Sofia vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-22?$8.35Jul 21, 22:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $104.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 20:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.