Educated-Runway
0xafbcfbb51d831d53f0bdd8e5cc2333b548eb18c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$3.4K
Win rate
99%
128 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
2418 shares @ 62.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.0K
$448.75
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1195 shares @ 29.3¢·now 85.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$667.94
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
731 shares @ 26.7¢·now 46.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$340.49
$145.32
- YES
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
731 shares @ 23.9¢·now 32.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$239.55
$64.47
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
2418 shares @ 7.4¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$181.36
$2.24
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
1179 shares @ 25.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$111.98
$-187.62
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
2414 shares @ 9.6¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$101.41
$-130.89
- YES
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
731 shares @ 8.6¢·now 9.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.05
$9.22
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
2418 shares @ 4.7¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$53.20
$-61.22
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
133 shares @ 28.8¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$49.77
$11.52
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?$86.20Jul 4, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$21.54Jul 1, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?$257.49Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin not meet?$136.41Jul 1, 07:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?$855.08Jul 1, 07:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?$238.90Jul 1, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?$182.47Jul 1, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?$31.15Jul 1, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$55.90Jun 17, 21:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?$28.90Jun 16, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$10.26Jun 15, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$516.45Jun 12, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?$98.02Jun 12, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$237.91Jun 9, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?$243.78May 28, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?$40.22May 27, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?$12.48May 25, 15:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?$52.06May 23, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?$0.00May 21, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.00May 21, 04:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
99% win rate over 128 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
128 closed markets, 99% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 10:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 03:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 128 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.