Smug-Codon
0xb09e6b3b1827c1b2744cb17e1ab0e36b67dd0e53
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
566 shares @ 72.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-410.00
- NO
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?
333 shares @ 90.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
- NO
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
244 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
115 shares @ 87.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?$0.00Jun 19, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLMike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?$206.42Jun 19, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?$196.31Jun 19, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$103.51Jun 19, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?$209.43Jun 19, 17:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIran coup attempt by June 30?$470.45Jun 19, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?$59.00Jun 4, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?$200.00Jun 4, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?$100.00Jun 4, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$100.00Jun 4, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$200.00Jun 4, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$200.00Jun 4, 17:43 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$209.13Jun 2, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$211.46Jun 2, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$217.39Jun 2, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$219.78Jun 2, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$10.00May 14, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$240.00May 14, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?$200.35May 14, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$200.00May 14, 16:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $158.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 29, 17:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 17:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.