Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$31.90
Liquidity
$22.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1588.0h
- 08:01SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 7¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 7¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 7¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).