Weak-Dinner
0xb1a279adb096d316b1b168993e8ed976d3cd372a
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$90.8K
Total PnL
$-591.8K
Realised
$981.69
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
84552 shares @ 75.4¢·now 75.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$63.6K
$-171.89
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
131273 shares @ 8.6¢·now 9.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.9K
$604.77
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
47746 shares @ 23.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.2K
$18.33
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
69538 shares @ 3.9¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$-121.90
- YES
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?
726 shares @ 83.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$656.99
$48.97
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
10000 shares @ 20.0¢·now 3.2¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$320.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1000 shares @ 26.1¢·now 24.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$245.50
$-15.50
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
29696 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$148.48
$-512.61
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1828 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$70.36
$-2.74
- NO
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
689788 shares @ 50.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-346.6K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$17.1KJul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$19.19Jul 28, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$26.57Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.1KJul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.83Jul 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$7.93Jul 28, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$44.41Jul 28, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.6KJul 28, 18:02 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$88.46Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.21Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$0.20Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$7.18Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$35.22Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$6.5KJul 27, 15:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.18Jul 27, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$660.00Jul 27, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$76.61Jul 27, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$660.00Jul 27, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Jul 27, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.00Jul 27, 15:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
27/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$199.4K · 97% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $2.4K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 17:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.