Gaseous-Soybean
0xb2a309a61ca9ed5db26e9fdda3a19ff4ae3a79e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$387.77
Total PnL
$-108.94
Realised
$21.71
Win rate
33%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
130 shares @ 38.2¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.58
$10.75
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
351 shares @ 13.3¢·now 13.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$45.78
$-0.88
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
33 shares @ 77.7¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.26
$-2.01
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
25 shares @ 87.1¢·now 87.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.75
$-0.04
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
20 shares @ 36.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.08
$12.76
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
15 shares @ 92.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.85
$0.62
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.48
$0.08
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
28 shares @ 49.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$13.37
$-0.65
- YES
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
24875 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.44
$-30.97
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
31 shares @ 35.7¢·now 35.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.90
$-0.23
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$25.84Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?$0.87Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$0.08Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$0.93Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$15.84Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$31.46Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.46Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$41.86Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$23.97Jul 21, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$42.57Jul 21, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$21.89Jul 21, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$10.83Jul 21, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$167.96Jul 21, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$153.65Jul 21, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?$27.40Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$12.87Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$19.80Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$20.79Jul 21, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$10.95Jul 21, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$76.82Jul 21, 20:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $21.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.