Vast-Damage
0xb625f16d0d339e5b95e543bf594c6b63de3c79c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
73
Open notional
$468.15
Total PnL
$-456.77
Realised
$2.90
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Trump on $250 bill this year?
167 shares @ 85.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$163.08
$20.91
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
128 shares @ 81.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$118.66
$13.66
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
77 shares @ 65.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.15
$11.15
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
46 shares @ 65.8¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.33
$0.33
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
37 shares @ 54.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.85
$1.85
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
16 shares @ 64.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.95
$1.95
- NO
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.30
$-0.70
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
53 shares @ 18.9¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.56
$0.56
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$10.43
$0.43
- NO
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
39 shares @ 25.9¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.12
$-1.88
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 6, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$20.00Jul 6, 07:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$125.61Jul 1, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10.17Jul 1, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$10.30Jul 1, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?$13.46Jul 1, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$18.16Jul 1, 11:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $9.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.