Huge-Stamen
0xb6a2a66e8ee6ec02189125481461c64f35ad4b66
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$44.80
Total PnL
$-14.31
Realised
$23.16
Win rate
23%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
5 shares @ 78.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.73
$1.00
- YES
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
4 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.36
$3.58
- NO
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 45.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.44
$1.39
- NO
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
3 shares @ 81.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.31
$0.57
- NO
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$3.08
$-0.04
- NO
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
3 shares @ 4.2¢·now 97.9¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$3.07
$2.94
- NO
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
3 shares @ 68.5¢·now 84.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.23
$0.43
- NO
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.57
$0.65
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$1.54
$0.15
- NO
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.52
$0.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat?$2.44Jul 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.47Jul 17, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.31Jul 15, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.45Jul 14, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$0.10Jul 13, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$6.82Jul 11, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$0.07Jul 9, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$0.19Jul 9, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$0.07Jul 9, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$0.07Jul 9, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.51Jul 7, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.52Jul 7, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLLove Wins: 2026 Edition$9.18Jul 4, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLLove Wins: 2026 Edition$1.55Jul 4, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.24Jul 4, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.01Jul 4, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.02Jul 4, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.03Jul 4, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.07Jul 4, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.06Jul 2, 05:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
105 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 22:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 04:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.