0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$23.3K
Total PnL
$-210.34
Realised
$-134.91
Win rate
34%
93 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9964 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.9K
$-40.38
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3630 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.2K
$126.84
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9980 shares @ 20.5¢·now 20.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.0K
$-1.03
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1476 shares @ 81.2¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$33.61
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
1222 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$1.2K
$14.61
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
896 shares @ 96.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$891.97
$26.94
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
894 shares @ 94.4¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$862.30
$18.77
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
509 shares @ 63.9¢·now 84.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$428.83
$103.49
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
239 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$237.92
$18.04
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
664 shares @ 40.4¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.41
$-38.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$4.70Aug 21, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$2.70Aug 21, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$1.92Aug 21, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?$3.31Aug 21, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$9.24Aug 21, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$306.90Aug 21, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$52.58Aug 21, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 10 hours?$5.53Aug 21, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 10 hours?$0.35Aug 21, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?$5.16Aug 21, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$1.27Aug 21, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$0.41Aug 21, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$4.91Aug 21, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$6.67Aug 21, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?$4.56Aug 21, 00:29 UTC
- YIELD$1.27Aug 21, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$36.52Aug 20, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$7.20Aug 20, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$12.53Aug 20, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$86.10Aug 20, 23:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 93 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
93 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $16.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 11:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 05:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 93 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.