Puzzling-Familiar
0xb758d732bdaa9fdca576f057a5903759ea802b0f
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$108.73
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$29.35
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NEW YORK YANKEES
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
193 shares @ 52.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$93.61
$-6.75
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.31
$1.32
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.89
$-0.10
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
7 shares @ 74.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.91
$-1.30
- YES
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
4960 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-549.39
- GUJARAT TITANS
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans
3580 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-501.20
- YES
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2105 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-21.05
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1290 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.65
- YES
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1250 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1143 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$3.21Jul 29, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$2.60Jul 28, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.60Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.40Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.21Jul 28, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.20Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$5.00Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$12.74Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.12Jul 27, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.41Jul 27, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.71Jul 27, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.13Jul 27, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.64Jul 27, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$10.10Jul 27, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$3.22Jul 27, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.33Jul 27, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$5.00Jul 26, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$2.85Jul 25, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$5.00Jul 25, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$4.71Jul 24, 14:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.