Quintessential-Drag
0xba89b38cc842b40bedb004c211849ce9f5a0468c
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
193
Open notional
$61.85
Total PnL
$-435.73
Realised
$-0.65
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
112 shares @ 18.3¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.68
$-9.87
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
95 shares @ 9.8¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.69
$-2.66
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17 shares @ 14.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.71
$2.31
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
8 shares @ 41.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.76
$-0.52
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 12.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.87
$0.07
- YES
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
20 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$0.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
8 shares @ 34.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.72
$-1.00
- YES
EU dissolves before 2027?
75 shares @ 4.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.60
$-1.40
- YES
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
7 shares @ 37.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$-1.09
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
162 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.46
$0.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?$0.01Jul 28, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?$0.01Jul 28, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$1.18Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?$1.37Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?$1.04Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?$1.12Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?$0.78Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?$0.05Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 1.0%?$0.06Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$1.16Jul 24, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Yemen by July 31?$1.08Jul 24, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 27?$1.80Jul 24, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?$1.12Jul 24, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$5.10Jul 23, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$1.20Jul 23, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$1.05Jul 21, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 21?$1.08Jul 21, 20:01 UTC
- REDEEMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$20.00Jul 20, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$1.04Jul 18, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.02Jul 18, 22:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 16:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.